Updating predictive accident models of modern rural single carriageway A-roads

Wood, A.G. ORCID: 0000-0002-7527-4757, Mountain, L.J., Connors, R.D. and Maher, M.J., 2013. Updating predictive accident models of modern rural single carriageway A-roads. Transportation Planning and Technology, 36 (1), pp. 93-108. ISSN 0308-1060

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Abstract

Reliable predictive accident models (PAMs) are essential to design and maintain safe road networks and yet the models most commonly used in the UK were derived using data collected 20 to 30 years ago. Given that the national personal injury accident total fell by some 30% in the last 25 years, while road traffic increased by over 60%, significant errors in scheme appraisal and evaluation based on the models currently in use seem inevitable. In this paper the temporal transferability of PAMs for modern rural single carriageway A-roads is investigated and their predictive performance is evaluated against a recent data set. Despite the age of these models, the PAMs for predicting the total accidents provide a remarkably good fit to recent data and these are more accurate than models where accidents are disaggregated by type. The performance of the models can be improved by calibrating them against recent data.

Item Type: Journal article
Description: Special issue: Universities' Transport Study Group UK Annual Conference 2012
Publication Title: Transportation Planning and Technology
Creators: Wood, A.G., Mountain, L.J., Connors, R.D. and Maher, M.J.
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Date: 2013
Volume: 36
Number: 1
ISSN: 0308-1060
Identifiers:
NumberType
10.1080/03081060.2012.745760DOI
Divisions: Schools > School of Science and Technology
Depositing User: Jonathan Gallacher
Date Added: 10 Mar 2016 16:35
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2017 13:59
URI: http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/27120

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