Forecasting the Outcome of Closed-Door Decisions: Evidence from 500 Years of Betting on Papal Conclaves

Vaughan Williams, L. ORCID: 0000-0002-9639-9217 and Paton, D., 2015. Forecasting the Outcome of Closed-Door Decisions: Evidence from 500 Years of Betting on Papal Conclaves. Journal of Forecasting, 34 (5), pp. 391-404. ISSN 0277-6693

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Abstract

Closed-door decisions may be defined as decisions in which the outcome is determined by a limited number of decision-makers and where the process is shrouded in at least some secrecy. In this paper, we examine the use of betting markets to forecast on particular closed-door decision, the election of the Pope. Within the context of 500 years of papal election betting, we employ a unique dataset of betting on the 2013 papal election to investigate how new public information is incorporated into the betting odds. Our results suggest that the market was generally unable to incorporate effectively such information. We venture some possible explanations for our findings and offer suggestions for further research into the prediction and predictability of other 'closed-door' decisions.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Journal of Forecasting
Creators:	Vaughan Williams, L. and Paton, D.
Publisher:	Wiley
Date:	August 2015
Volume:	34
Number:	5
ISSN:	0277-6693
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1002/for.2339 DOI
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Linda Sullivan
Date Added:	12 Jan 2017 11:34
Last Modified:	09 Jun 2017 14:10
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29651

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