The US Supreme Court and the 'Affordable Care Act': an exercise in closed-door forecasting

Vaughan Williams, L. ORCID: 0000-0002-9639-9217, 2014. The US Supreme Court and the 'Affordable Care Act': an exercise in closed-door forecasting. Working Paper. Nottingham: Nottingham Trent University.

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Abstract

Forecasting voting outcomes has a long history, particularly in the case of US presidential elections and papal elections. The difference between these types of voting is that the former is open to a very large number of electors and to public scrutiny while the latter is closed, in the sense of a small number of decision-makers whose choices are shrouded in layer of secrecy. This paper examines the second type of decision-making, using the 2012 US Supreme Court consideration of the Affordable Care Act to assess the relative efficacy of different methods of forecasting the outcome of these closed decisions in advance of their declaration. While the success rate of each of these methodologies has been somewhat patchy, the degree and detail of information provided by an examination
of the various forecasts and the actual outcome of this case
provides insights which might usefully improve forecasts of future decisions.

Item Type: Working paper
Description: Discussion papers in applied economics and policy, no. 2014/5 ISSN 1478-9396
Creators: Vaughan Williams, L.
Publisher: Nottingham Trent University
Place of Publication: Nottingham
Date: December 2014
Divisions: Schools > Nottingham Business School
Depositing User: Linda Sullivan
Date Added: 16 Jan 2017 15:33
Last Modified: 09 Jun 2017 14:11
URI: http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29729

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