Prediction of core body temperature from multiple variables

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Richmond, V.L., Davey, S., Griggs, K. ORCID: 0000-0002-1962-9613 and Havenith, G., 2015. Prediction of core body temperature from multiple variables. Annals of Occupational Hygiene, 59 (9), pp. 1168-1178. ISSN 0003-4878

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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1093/annhyg/mev054

Abstract

This paper aims to improve the prediction of rectal temperature (Tre) from insulated skin temperature (Tis) and micro-climate temperature (Tmc) previously reported (Richmond et al., Insulated skin temperature as a measure of core body temperature for individuals wearing CBRN protective clothing. Physiol Meas 2013; 34:1531–43.) using additional physiological and/or environmental variables, under several clothing and climatic conditions. Twelve male (25.8±5.1 years; 73.6±11.5kg; 178±6cm) and nine female (24.2±5.1 years; 62.4±11.5kg; 169±3cm) volunteers completed six trials, each consisting of two 40-min periods of treadmill walking separated by a 20-min rest, wearing permeable or impermeable clothing, under neutral (25°C, 50%), moderate (35°C, 35%), and hot (40°C, 25%) conditions, with and without solar radiation (600W m−2). Participants were measured for heart rate (HR) (Polar, Finland), skin temperature (Ts) at 11 sites, Tis (Grant, Cambridge, UK), and breathing rate (f) (Hidalgo, Cambridge, UK). Tmc and relative humidity were measured within the clothing. Tre was monitored as the 'gold standard' measure of Tc for industrial or military applications using a 10cm flexible probe (Grant, Cambridge, UK).

A stepwise multiple regression analysis was run to determine which of 30 variables (Tis, Ts at 11 sites, HR, f, Tmc, temperature, and humidity inside the clothing front and back, body mass, age, body fat, sex, clothing, Thermal comfort, sensation and perception, and sweat rate) were the strongest on which to base the model. Using a bootstrap methodology to develop the equation, the best model in terms of practicality and validity included Tis, Tmc, HR, and 'work' (0 = rest; 1 = exercise), predicting Tre with a standard error of the estimate of 0.27°C and adjusted r2 of 0.86. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting individuals who reached 39°C was 97 and 85%, respectively.

Insulated skin temperature was the most important individual parameter for the prediction of Tre. This paper provides novel information about the viability of predicting Tc under a wide range of conditions, using predictors which can practically be measured in a field environment.

Item Type:

Journal article

Publication Title:

Annals of Occupational Hygiene

Creators:

Richmond, V.L., Davey, S., Griggs, K. and Havenith, G.

Publisher:

Oxford University Press

Date:

1 November 2015

Volume:

Number: