Forecasting of emerging therapeutic monoclonal antibodies patents based on a decision model

Pereira, C.G., Lavoie, J.R., Garces, E., Basso, F., Dabić, M. ORCID: 0000-0001-8374-9719, Porto, G.S. and Daim, T., 2019. Forecasting of emerging therapeutic monoclonal antibodies patents based on a decision model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 139, pp. 185-199. ISSN 0040-1625

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Abstract

Therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) market is strongly contributing to the rising growth of the biotechnology industry. Despite the increasing number of inventions over time, a few therapeutic mAbs are currently marketed. This paper focuses on developing an emerging score to select/rank promising therapeutic mAbs patents, based on a hierarchical decision model using expert's opinion. Six attributes related to each factor concerning patent status, patent owner's profile and mAbs medical relevance were analyzed. The desirability levels of each attribute were also assessed. Our data shows the medical relevance factor as the most important, contributing 50% of the emerging score. Among the attributes, the most important under patent status was proper geographic coverage and wider patent scope; for organization's profile was the preexistence of approved drugs; and for medical relevance, the clinical phase performance. A group of 1053 patents related to therapeutic mAb were scored, and the most promising were concerning combination therapy using immune checkpoint inhibitors. The study has managerial implications related to patent portfolio management and patent valuation, and provides instructions to rank mAbs patents according to the emerging score defined by attribute's importance in order to improve the identification of future innovations pathways.

Item Type: Journal article
Publication Title: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Creators: Pereira, C.G., Lavoie, J.R., Garces, E., Basso, F., Dabić, M., Porto, G.S. and Daim, T.
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: February 2019
Volume: 139
ISSN: 0040-1625
Identifiers:
NumberType
10.1016/j.techfore.2018.11.002DOI
S0040162518307741Publisher Item Identifier
Divisions: Schools > Nottingham Business School
Depositing User: Jonathan Gallacher
Date Added: 25 Feb 2019 13:57
Last Modified: 25 Feb 2019 13:57
URI: http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/35801

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