EU economic integration agreements, Brexit and trade

Stack, M.M. ORCID: 0000-0002-9213-7607 and Bliss, M., 2020. EU economic integration agreements, Brexit and trade. Review of World Economics. ISSN 1610-2878

[img] Text
1314221_a588_Stack.pdf - Post-print
Full-text access embargoed until 2 May 2021.

Download (538kB)

Abstract

The effects of regionalism on trade have been extensively evaluated within a gravity model framework. With the expected exit of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), the prospect of regional disintegration has brought about a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using actual and forecast data for a panel of bilateral imports between the EU15 and the rest of the world, this paper examines the trade effects of EU economic integration agreements (EIAs), their evolution over time and the related counterfactual Brexit trade policy scenarios. Distinct trade effects are obtained for the EU trade related agreements; positive, significant and of similar magnitude for the EU and free trade agreement (FTA) coefficients, but negative and significant (and smaller in magnitude) for the regional economic partnership agreements (EPAs). The subperiod results suggest the positive coefficients of EU and FTA membership tend to diminish over time, implying earlier membership of EIAs came with greater trade benefits. Finally, in generating the predicted values for the trade effects of three alternative counterfactual Brexit scenarios (hard Brexit, hard Brexit plus, global Britain), the findings suggest an asymmetric effect depending on the perspective of the UK versus the EU. Whereas the UK’s trade would decline substantially with all three country groups (the EU, the FTAs and regional EPAs) and rise substantially with the rest of the world, only minor percentage changes are predicted for EU bilateral trade.

Item Type: Journal article
Publication Title: Review of World Economics
Creators: Stack, M.M. and Bliss, M.
Publisher: Springer
Date: 2 May 2020
ISSN: 1610-2878
Identifiers:
NumberType
1314221Other
10.1007/s10290-020-00379-xDOI
Divisions: Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by: Linda Sullivan
Date Added: 06 May 2020 12:39
Last Modified: 30 Sep 2020 10:41
URI: http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/39792

Actions (login required)

Edit View Edit View

Views

Views per month over past year

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year