Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a simple forecasting model

Reade, J.J., Singleton, C. and Vaughan Williams, L. ORCID: 0000-0002-9639-9217, 2020. Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a simple forecasting model. Economic Issues. (Forthcoming)

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Abstract

Using betting odds from two recent seasons of English Premier League football matches, we evaluate probability and point forecasts generated from a standard statistical model of goal scoring. The bookmaker odds show significant evidence of the favourite-longshot bias for exact scorelines, which is not generally present for match results. We find evidence that the scoreline probability forecasts from the model are better than what the odds of bookmakers imply, based on forecast encompassing regressions. However, when we apply a simple betting strategy using point forecasts from the model, there are no substantial or consistent financial returns to be made over the two seasons. In other words, there is no evidence from this particular statistical model that the result, scoreline, margin of victory or total goals betting markets are on average inefficient.

Item Type: Journal article
Publication Title: Economic Issues
Creators: Reade, J.J., Singleton, C. and Vaughan Williams, L.
Publisher: Economic Issues Education Trust
Date: 19 March 2020
Identifiers:
NumberType
1343286Other
Divisions: Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by: Linda Sullivan
Date Added: 13 Jul 2020 10:03
Last Modified: 05 Aug 2020 08:36
URI: http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/40211

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