D2N2 Analytical Group - Estimating actual and potential impacts on private sector employment, sales and investment: data analysis and implications for recovery planning

Karagounis, K., Mizen, P. and Rossiter, W. ORCID: 0000-0002-2199-1136, 2020. D2N2 Analytical Group - Estimating actual and potential impacts on private sector employment, sales and investment: data analysis and implications for recovery planning. Nottingham: University of Nottingham; Nottingham Trent University, p. 11.

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Abstract

This paper uses the latest Decision Maker Panel (DMP) data drawn from the publicly available data released by the Bank of England to highlight the economic risks to the D2N2 economy and its constituent parts as they plan for recovery.

The DMP is a monthly survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses that is used to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views. With over 8,600 executives from UK SMEs and large companies from a broad range of industries participating in the study, the panel is designed to be representative of the UK business population, excluding a small number of sectors. Our application of the DMP at regional and local scale forms one of the only sources of real-time, local and forward-looking datasets in the UK, providing a strong evidence base that can be used to underpin recovery strategies.

The analysis provides headline findings up to the November 2020 DMP survey released in December 2020 to provide a real-time view of the economic impact of the pandemic as well as a sectoral decomposition. Section 2 applied the DMP to the D2N2 area and analyses the implicit impacts at a local authority level. Section 3 details the implications of the analysis for the D2N2 LEP Economic Recovery and Growth Strategy (ERGS) in the context of Business Growth and Innovation and Skills and Employment. These policy and planning implications are not exhaustive – they are intended to stimulate ongoing discussion of policy responses to the economic impacts of the Pandemic and planning for recovery.

Whilst some forward-looking data are used to develop projections and possible scenarios, readers are cautioned against treating these as a 'forecast'.

Item Type: Confidential report for external body
Description: Paper for discussion. Confidential report - not for public access. On request access can be considered on case-by-case basis.
Creators: Karagounis, K., Mizen, P. and Rossiter, W.
Publisher: University of Nottingham; Nottingham Trent University
Place of Publication: Nottingham
Date: 17 December 2020
Identifiers:
NumberType
1397921Other
Divisions: Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by: Linda Sullivan
Date Added: 12 Jan 2021 08:56
Last Modified: 12 Jan 2021 08:57
URI: http://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/42007

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