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Auer, M. and Griffiths, M.D. 
ORCID: 0000-0001-8880-6524,
2023.
Predicting high-risk gambling based on the first seven days of gambling activity after registration using account-based tracking data.
International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction.
ISSN 1557-1874
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Abstract
In recent years, several European regulators have introduced mandatory player tracking to identify potentially problematic online gambling. The present study's aim was to investigate the possibility of predicting future high-risk gambling based on a short time window (i.e., the first seven days after the registration for an online gambling site). The authors were given access to a secondary dataset comprising 37,986 gamblers who registered at a European online gambling operator between January 1 and April 30, 2022. The study examined the association between gambling behavior during the first week after registration and high-risk gambling during the first 90 days after registration. A logistic regression model with high-risk gamblers (based on the first three months of gambling data after initial registration) as the dependent variable and age, gender, and the first week's gambling behavior as independent variables explained 40% of the variance. Age, gender, and seven player tracking features from the first week after registration were significant. Machine learning models confirmed the high correlation between the first week of gambling and a high-risk classification during the first three months after registration. The most important features reported by a Random Forest and a Gradient Boost Machine model were the total amount of money deposited, the number of deposits, the amount of money lost, and the average number of deposits per session. The study showed that high-risk gambling during the first three months of a player's lifetime can be predicted very early after registration. These findings suggest that gambling operators should initiate preventive measures (such as limit setting, mandatory play-breaks, personalized messaging) and monitor gambling behavior at a very early stage after a gambler's initial registration.
| Item Type: | Journal article | ||||||
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| Publication Title: | International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction | ||||||
| Creators: | Auer, M. and Griffiths, M.D. | ||||||
| Publisher: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC | ||||||
| Date: | 2 May 2023 | ||||||
| ISSN: | 1557-1874 | ||||||
| Identifiers: |
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| Rights: | © The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. | ||||||
| Divisions: | Schools > School of Social Sciences | ||||||
| Record created by: | Laura Ward | ||||||
| Date Added: | 05 May 2023 09:33 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 05 May 2023 09:33 | ||||||
| URI: | https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/48881 |
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