Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse

Makhlouf, Y. ORCID: 0000-0001-7737-3153, Kellard, N.M. and Vinogradov, D., 2017. Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse. Social Science & Medicine, 178, pp. 144-156. ISSN 0277-9536

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Given many developing economies depend on primary commodities, the fluctuations of commodity prices may imply significant effects for the wellbeing of children. To investigate, this paper examines the relationship between child mortality and commodity price movements as reflected by country-specific commodity terms-of-trade. Employing a panel of 69 low and lower-middle income countries over the period 1970-2010, we show that commodity terms-of-trade volatility increases child mortality in highly commodity-dependent importers suggesting a type of 'scarce' resource curse. Strikingly however, good institutions appear able to mitigate the negative impact of volatility. The paper concludes by highlighting this tripartite relationship between child mortality, volatility and good institutions and posits that an effective approach to improving child wellbeing in low to lower-middle income countries will combine hedging, import diversification and improvement of institutional quality.

Item Type: Journal article
Publication Title: Social Science & Medicine
Creators: Makhlouf, Y., Kellard, N.M. and Vinogradov, D.
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: April 2017
Volume: 178
ISSN: 0277-9536
S0277953617300771Publisher Item Identifier
Divisions: Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by: Jill Tomkinson
Date Added: 10 Feb 2017 11:17
Last Modified: 01 Feb 2018 03:00

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