Commodity price uncertainty and international trade

Bakas, D. ORCID: 0000-0003-4771-4505, Konstantakopoulou, I. and Triantafyllou, A., 2023. Commodity price uncertainty and international trade. European Review of Agricultural Economics. ISSN 0165-1587 (Forthcoming)

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Abstract

We empirically investigate the impact of commodity price uncertainty on US and Euro Area trade flows. Our results indicate that the response of US and Euro Area trade flows to commodity uncertainty shocks is larger, in magnitude and persistence, when compared with the respective impact of commodity supply and demand shocks. Moreover, our analysis shows that a one-standard deviation shock in commodity price volatility has a higher (in magnitude) and more persistent effect on trade when compared with the respective shocks in exchange rates and commodity prices. Finally, an uncertainty shock in various agricultural and metals markets has a similar negative impact on trade flows to that of energy uncertainty shocks.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	European Review of Agricultural Economics
Creators:	Bakas, D., Konstantakopoulou, I. and Triantafyllou, A.
Publisher:	Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date:	13 May 2023
ISSN:	0165-1587
Identifiers:	Number Type 1762301 Other
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Laura Ward
Date Added:	19 May 2023 15:53
Last Modified:	19 May 2023 15:53
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/49035

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