The tourism-led economic growth hypothesis in the euro area: do asymmetries and structural breaks matter?

Bakas, D ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4771-4505, Konstantakopoulou, I and Triantafyllou, A, 2026. The tourism-led economic growth hypothesis in the euro area: do asymmetries and structural breaks matter? International Journal of Tourism Research, 28 (2): e70304. ISSN 1099-2340

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Abstract

This paper examines the validity of the tourism-led economic growth hypothesis for the Euro Area economies. We employ both linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approaches to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of tourism on economic growth. Furthermore, we control for the presence of structural breaks in the time series, which account for the recent financial and debt crises in the Euro Area. The results support the positive impact of tourism on economic growth for most of the Euro Area economies and are robust to alternative tourism measures. The findings indicate that an asymmetric impact exists both in the long and the short run. Positive and negative shocks in tourism and the real exchange rate result in significantly different effects, both in terms of sign and magnitude, on economic growth.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	International Journal of Tourism Research
Creators:	Bakas, D., Konstantakopoulou, I. and Triantafyllou, A.
Publisher:	Wiley
Date:	March 2026
Volume:	28
Number:	2
ISSN:	1099-2340
Identifiers:	Number Type 2422153 Other
Rights:	This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Bakas, D, Konstantakopoulou, I and Triantafyllou, A, 2026. The tourism-led economic growth hypothesis in the euro area: do asymmetries and structural breaks matter? International Journal of Tourism Research, 28 (2): e70304, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.70304. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Melissa Cornwell
Date Added:	04 Apr 2025 09:18
Last Modified:	31 Mar 2026 10:39
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/53357

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