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Vaughan Williams, L. 
ORCID: 0000-0002-9639-9217 and Reade, J.J.,
2016.
Forecasting Elections.
Journal of Forecasting, 35 (4), pp. 308-328.
ISSN 0277-6693
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Pubsuv7243_Vaughan-Williams.pdf - Pre-print Download (906kB) | Preview |
Abstract
In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. We consider accuracy, bias and decidedness over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to outperform polls in terms of accuracy, unbiasedness
and decidedness. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets.
| Item Type: | Journal article | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative Title: | How to forecast an election: polls or prediction markets? | ||||
| Publication Title: | Journal of Forecasting | ||||
| Creators: | Vaughan Williams, L. and Reade, J.J. | ||||
| Publisher: | Wiley | ||||
| Date: | July 2016 | ||||
| Volume: | 35 | ||||
| Number: | 4 | ||||
| ISSN: | 0277-6693 | ||||
| Identifiers: |
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| Divisions: | Schools > Nottingham Business School | ||||
| Record created by: | Linda Sullivan | ||||
| Date Added: | 12 Jan 2017 11:40 | ||||
| Last Modified: | 09 Jun 2017 14:10 | ||||
| URI: | https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29653 |
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