Forecasting Elections

Vaughan Williams, L ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9639-9217 and Reade, JJ, 2016. Forecasting Elections. Journal of Forecasting, 35 (4), pp. 308-328. ISSN 0277-6693

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Abstract

In this paper we assess polls and prediction markets over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. We consider accuracy, bias and decidedness over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to outperform polls in terms of accuracy, unbiasedness
and decidedness. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets.

Item Type:	Journal article
Alternative Title:	How to forecast an election: polls or prediction markets?
Publication Title:	Journal of Forecasting
Creators:	Vaughan Williams, L. and Reade, J.J.
Publisher:	Wiley
Date:	July 2016
Volume:	35
Number:	4
ISSN:	0277-6693
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1002/for.2377 DOI
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Linda Sullivan
Date Added:	12 Jan 2017 11:40
Last Modified:	09 Jun 2017 14:10
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29653

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