Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?

Easaw, JZ, Garratt, D ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6929-134X and Heravi, SM, 2005. Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US? Journal of Macroeconomics, 27 (3), pp. 517-532. ISSN 0164-0704

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Abstract

This paper investigates how well survey data depicting consumer sentiment forecasts household’s consumption behavior for the UK. We consider whether consumer sentiment is able to predict the growth of household’s consumption, in addition to the growth of labor income. The empirical analysis finds that Consumer Confidence Indices (CCI) does predict the household’s consumption of durable goods. We also draw comparisons with recent analysis for the US. In addition, we analyze whether both the UK and US CCI are accurate and useful predictors of household’s consumption growth using directional analysis. We find that the UK confidence indicators predict better the US.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Journal of Macroeconomics
Creators:	Easaw, J.Z., Garratt, D. and Heravi, S.M.
Publisher:	Elsevier (not including Cell Press)
Date:	2005
Volume:	27
Number:	3
ISSN:	0164-0704
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1016/j.jmacro.2004.03.001 DOI
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	EPrints Services
Date Added:	09 Oct 2015 10:19
Last Modified:	09 Jun 2017 13:26
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/11123

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