General manager characteristics, demand forecast accuracy, and decision quality in new firms

Quon, G, 2015. General manager characteristics, demand forecast accuracy, and decision quality in new firms. PhD, Nottingham Trent University.

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Abstract

In today's complex and fast changing business environment, accurate demand forecasting is increasingly important to business decision making. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between general manager (GM) characteristic, demand forecast accuracy and decision quality in new firms. A framework is developed and posits that demand forecast accuracy in new firms is impacted by GM involvement, GM expertise and GM overconfidence. GM involvement in the forecasting process positively influences forecasters' work engagement in the activity. In turn, the effect of GM involvement on forecast accuracy is mediated by employee work engagement. The effect of GM involvement is also moderated by the type of organization culture that exists in the enterprise. Finally, in this model, demand forecast accuracy is seen having a direct impact on decision quality. Based on survey sample collected from 331 general managers/forecasters in new firms, the analysis results show that GM involvement and GM expertise affect forecast accuracy positively, while GM overconfidence affects forecast accuracy negatively. In addition, the effect of forecast accuracy on decision quality is positively supported. The study also concludes that the three dimensions of work engagement, consisting of vigor, dedication, absorption, partially mediate then effect of GM involvement on demand forecast accuracy. Further the results show that clan culture or market culture environments that exist within the firm can positively moderate the relationship between GM involvement and forecast accuracy, while adhocracy or hierarchy culture produces a negative interaction for GM involvement. The outcome of the research is important in drawing suggestions for organization process redesign that can improve forecast accuracy and enhance decision quality.

Item Type:	Thesis
Description:	Doctor of Business Administration (DBA)
Creators:	Quon, G.
Date:	1 October 2015
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Jonathan Gallacher
Date Added:	03 May 2016 08:21
Last Modified:	03 May 2016 09:07
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/27719

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