The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles

Deku, SY ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1579-8708, Kara, A and Semeyutin, A, 2020. The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting. ISSN 0924-865X

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Abstract

We examine whether the predictive power of initial yield spreads of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) vary with the financial cycle. Using a cross-country sample of 4203 MBS, we find that initial yield spreads of MBS incorporate more information than credit ratings and predict future downgrades, even after conditioning on initial credit ratings. Predictive power of spreads is higher during credit and housing bubbles and for the least risky AAA-rated MBS. We find that initial yield spreads capture the magnitude of rating downgrades, especially during asset bubble periods. As a novel approach in this literature, we also utilise machine learning techniques (regression trees, naïve Bayes, support vector machines and random forests) to confirm our results.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting
Creators:	Deku, S.Y., Kara, A. and Semeyutin, A.
Publisher:	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date:	29 April 2020
ISSN:	0924-865X
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1007/s11156-020-00888-8 DOI 1327843 Other
Rights:	© The Author(s) 2020. Open Access: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Linda Sullivan
Date Added:	21 May 2020 12:30
Last Modified:	28 May 2020 10:48
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/39887

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