D2N2 Analytical Group – COVID-19 employment and output risks. Analysis of local employment, output and business risk exposure due to lockdown

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Karagounis, K., Mizen, P. and Rossiter, W. ORCID: 0000-0002-2199-1136, 2020. D2N2 Analytical Group – COVID-19 employment and output risks. Analysis of local employment, output and business risk exposure due to lockdown. Nottingham: Nottingham Trent University; University of Nottingham, p. 15.

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Abstract

This paper follows discussion in recent meetings of the D2N2 Covid-19 Analysis Group of the potential benefits associated with translating national research for use by D2N2 in order to inform planning for recovery while also minimising duplication of analytical efforts relating to the economic impacts of the current pandemic.

This paper therefore serves two purposes:

1) It presents an analysis of local employment risk and projected output losses due to lockdown for the D2N2 area and its constituent local authorities; and

2) Does this in a manner intended to demonstrate the potential value of translating national research evidence for use in a D2N2 context.

The paper follows three methodologies to provide an indication of the potential employment and output impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown in the D2N2 LEP area. The methodologies used are based on two national reports – the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) briefing note and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Coronavirus reference scenario – and the latest monthly Decision Maker Panel data (DMP) for May 2020. The data from IFS and OBR refer to data collected earlier in the pandemic (early to mid-April) and the DMP data refer to later in the pandemic (May).

This analysis is intended to enable local policy makers and planners to better understand the broad scale, nature and spatial distribution of the potential employment impacts that may arise from the present pandemic. Readers are cautioned against treating the scenarios presented in this paper as a 'forecast'.

Item Type:

Confidential report for external body

Description:

Confidential report - not for public access. On request access can be considered on case-by-case basis.

Creators:

Karagounis, K., Mizen, P. and Rossiter, W.

Publisher:

Nottingham Trent University; University of Nottingham

Place of Publication:

Nottingham

Date:

17 June 2020