Where should police forces target their residential burglary reduction efforts? Using official victimisation data to predict burglary incidences at the neighbourhood level

Hunter, J ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5501-6718, Ward, B ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2125-4619, Tseloni, A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6443-7012 and Pease, K, 2021. Where should police forces target their residential burglary reduction efforts? Using official victimisation data to predict burglary incidences at the neighbourhood level. Crime Science, 10: 11. ISSN 2193-7680

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Abstract

Expected crime rates that enable police forces to contrast recorded and anticipated spatial patterns of crime victimisation offer a valuable tool in evaluating the under-reporting of crime and inform/guide crime reduction initiatives. Prior to this study, police forces had no access to expected burglary maps at the neighbourhood level covering all parts of England and Wales. Drawing on analysis of the Crime Survey for England and Wales and employing a population terrain modelling approach, this paper utilises household and area characteristics to predict the mean residential burglary incidences per 1000 population across all neighbourhoods in England and Wales. The analysis identifies distinct differences in recorded and expected neighbourhood burglary incidences at the Output Area level, providing a catalyst for stimulating further reflection by police officers and crime analysts.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Crime Science
Creators:	Hunter, J., Ward, B., Tseloni, A. and Pease, K.
Publisher:	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date:	5 June 2021
Volume:	10
ISSN:	2193-7680
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1186/s40163-021-00144-x DOI 1444105 Other
Rights:	© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/ zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
Divisions:	Schools > School of Social Sciences
Record created by:	Laura Ward
Date Added:	08 Jun 2021 11:34
Last Modified:	08 Jun 2021 11:34
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/43022

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