Can modern monetary theory fit the post-crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model

Liu, C ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3770-4821, Minford, P and Ou, Z, 2024. Can modern monetary theory fit the post-crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model. International Journal of Finance and Economics. ISSN 1076-9307 (Forthcoming)

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Abstract

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) claims that a monetarily sovereign government like the US is never confronted by a real budget constraint since it can always monetise any deficit by printing money; and this need not be inflationary since it can always drain excess money from circulation by taxing. MMT economists claim that their theory is in line with the behaviour of the US data since the Financial Crisis, and argue that policy in the post-Covid recovery period should continue to be guided by MMT principles. We set out the MMT policy rules within a full DSGE model and test this model version against the data by indirect inference, side by side with a standard New Keynesian rival version, to evaluate these claims. We find that the MMT model is rejected by the data, while the standard model is not; and that the MMT policy rules imply a material loss of welfare compared to the standard ones.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	International Journal of Finance and Economics
Creators:	Liu, C., Minford, P. and Ou, Z.
Publisher:	Wiley
Date:	13 February 2024
ISSN:	1076-9307
Identifiers:	Number Type 1865140 Other
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Jonathan Gallacher
Date Added:	21 Feb 2024 14:21
Last Modified:	21 Feb 2024 14:21
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/50907

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