Predicting the role of socio-economic indices for the human development index based on a multivariate regression model

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Alimoradi, Z, Griffiths, MD ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8880-6524 and Alijanzadeh, M, 2025. Predicting the role of socio-economic indices for the human development index based on a multivariate regression model. Discover Public Health, 22 (1): 182. ISSN 3005-0774

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00587-6

Abstract

Background
Social and economic indicators of countries at the global level can reveal both weak and strong achievements concerning specific countries on a wide range of indices. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the correlations between social and economic indicators and the Human Development Index (HDI), a summary composite measure of a country's average wellbeing.

Methods
Secondary analysis was conducted between April and July 2022. Six variables of the HDI (i.e., the Gini Coefficient Index [GCI], Multidimensional Poverty Index [MPI], Research and Development Percentage Index of gross domestic product [R&D], infant mortality rate (IMR), and Gender Development Index [GDI]) were investigated across 189 countries in six continents. Data were analyzed using a multivariate regression model.

Results
The average HDI in the countries of the world was equal to 0.72 (SD ± 0.14), with the highest HDI score in Europe (0.87 ± 0.06; p < .001). Europe also had the highest R&D (1.34 [SD ± 1.02]; p < .001) and GDI indicators (0.98 [SD ± 0.02]; p < .001). Africa had the highest infant mortality (41.62 [SD ± 18.93]; p < .001) and highest MPI (0.230 [SD ± 0.166]; p < .001). America had the highest GCI (44.10 [SD ± 6.27]; p < .001). Findings indicated that countries with a higher HDI had better social and economic indicators (p < .001). There was a correlation between all selected indices with the HDI. The highest (negative) correlation was observed between IMR and HDI (r = − 0.885). The multivariate regression model showed IMR and the MPI were significant predictors of HDI and explained 84.7% of variance.

Conclusion
The two country indicators of IMR and MPI are good predictors of a country’s HDI.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Discover Public Health
Creators:	Alimoradi, Z., Griffiths, M.D. and Alijanzadeh, M.
Publisher:	Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date:	December 2025
Volume:	22
Number:	1
ISSN:	3005-0774
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1186/s12982-025-00587-6 DOI 2432374 Other
Rights:	© The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Divisions:	Schools > School of Social Sciences
Record created by:	Melissa Cornwell
Date Added:	08 May 2025 15:12
Last Modified:	08 May 2025 15:12
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/53556