Multi‐task time‐series modeling for fatigue–creep damage prediction in proton exchange membranes

Song, P, Li, W, Serjouei, A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7250-4131, Cai, L, Cao, X, Jin, Y and Elbugdady, I, 2025. Multi‐task time‐series modeling for fatigue–creep damage prediction in proton exchange membranes. Fatigue and Fracture of Engineering Materials and Structures. ISSN 8756-758X

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Abstract

Fatigue-creep damage induced mechanical degradation has been a significant failure mode of proton exchange membrane (PEM) for fuel cells, but the damage behavior and intelligent assessment method are not well understood. A multi-task time series model is proposed to address this, which predicts fatigue-creep crack growth by incorporating in-situ fatigue testing with mean stress effects. The results show that both fatigue and creep damage influence crack growth, with higher stress ratios accelerating it. The plastic zone size correlates with crack growth rate, highlighting the coupled fatigue-creep mechanisms. A damage assessment model is developed to quantify contributions from both factors. The approach, validated with K-fold cross-validation, demonstrates high predictive accuracy. SHAP analysis identifies stress ratio and stress intensity factor as key factors for creep and fatigue damage. This method improves prediction accuracy and enhances understanding of PEM degradation, offering insights for predictive maintenance and durable PEM design in fuel cells.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Fatigue and Fracture of Engineering Materials and Structures
Creators:	Song, P., Li, W., Serjouei, A., Cai, L., Cao, X., Jin, Y. and Elbugdady, I.
Publisher:	Wiley
Date:	10 December 2025
ISSN:	8756-758X
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1111/ffe.70147 DOI 2545897 Other
Rights:	This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Song, P., Li, W., Serjouei, A., Cai, L., Cao, X., Jin, Y., & Elbugdady, I. (2025). Multi‐task time‐series modeling for fatigue–creep damage prediction in proton exchange membranes. Fatigue and Fracture of Engineering Materials and Structures, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/ffe.70147 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
Divisions:	Schools > School of Science and Technology
Record created by:	Laura Borcherds
Date Added:	16 Dec 2025 09:42
Last Modified:	16 Dec 2025 09:42
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/54873

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