Emerging infectious diseases: coping with uncertainty

Cummings, L, 2009. Emerging infectious diseases: coping with uncertainty. Argumentation, 23 (2), pp. 171-188. ISSN 0920-427X

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Abstract

The world’s scientific community must be in a state of constant readiness to address the threat posed by newly emerging infectious diseases. Whether the disease in question is SARS in humans or BSE in animals, scientists must be able to put into action various disease containment measures when everything from the causative pathogen to route(s) of transmission is essentially uncertain. A robust epistemic framework, which will inform decision-making, is required under such conditions of uncertainty. I will argue that this framework should have reasoning at its centre and, specifically, that forms of reasoning beyond deduction and induction should be countenanced by scientists who are confronted with emerging infectious diseases. In previous articles, I have presented a case for treating certain so-called traditional informal fallacies as rationally acceptable forms of argument that can facilitate scientific inquiry when little is known about an emerging disease. In this paper, I want to extend that analysis by highlighting the unique features of these arguments that makes them specially adapted to cope with conditions of uncertainty. Of course, such a view of the informal fallacies must at least be consistent with the reasoning practices of scientists, and particularly those scientists (viz. epidemiologists) whose task it is to track and respond to newly emerging infectious diseases. To this end, I draw upon examples of scientific reasoning from the UK’s BSE crisis, a crisis that posed a significant threat to both human and animal health.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Argumentation
Creators:	Cummings, L.
Publisher:	Springer
Date:	2009
Volume:	23
Number:	2
ISSN:	0920-427X
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1007/s10503-008-9116-9 DOI
Divisions:	Schools > School of Arts and Humanities
Record created by:	EPrints Services
Date Added:	09 Oct 2015 10:04
Last Modified:	05 Dec 2023 15:03
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/7168

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