Using simulation for long-term bed modelling in critical care

Lentle, D, Sachser, V, Incze, E, Tako, A ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3585-3620, Rostami-Tabar, B, Spencer, C and Morgan, J, 2024. Using simulation for long-term bed modelling in critical care. Journal of Simulation. ISSN 1747-7778

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Abstract

A simulation model of the University Hospital of Wales (UHW) Critical Care (CC) Department is presented. This is the first CC model that considers the impact of future demand on capacity, supporting planning decisions to build a new hospital. A combination of long-term demand trajectories and Discrete Event Simulation (DES) are used. The results suggest the unit will need at least 66 Intensive Care beds and 19 Post-Anaesthesia Care beds to fulfil predicted demand in 2040 while being at capacity less than 5% of the time. Non-critical care ward beds impact patient flow in CC, thus must be considered when planning a new hospital. This study’s findings directly impact on decision making at UHW, having informed capacity planning of the planned unit. This paper contributes by presenting an infrastructure planning project using simulation as a decision-making tool, with transferable insights applicable to the planning of other CC units.

Item Type:	Journal article
Publication Title:	Journal of Simulation
Creators:	Lentle, D., Sachser, V., Incze, E., Tako, A., Rostami-Tabar, B., Spencer, C. and Morgan, J.
Publisher:	Taylor & Francis
Date:	17 October 2024
ISSN:	1747-7778
Identifiers:	Number Type 10.1080/17477778.2024.2412009 DOI 2260841 Other
Rights:	© 2024 the author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
Divisions:	Schools > Nottingham Business School
Record created by:	Jonathan Gallacher
Date Added:	22 Oct 2024 15:57
Last Modified:	23 Oct 2024 08:10
URI:	https://irep.ntu.ac.uk/id/eprint/52454

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